Penguins Game Review 1/19/13: Pens 3 @ Flyers 1

So that's what defense looks like? Where as nothing would go right defensively for the Penguins in 'that' series back in April, the team delivered a defensive gem Saturday to defeat the Philadelphia Flyers, 3-1.

Pittsburgh would have been hard pressed to get their campaign off to a better start. Their team speed led to a number of good scoring chances, outshooting Philadelphia heavily early on. Tyler Kennedy tipped a Paul Martin (more on him later) shot past Ilya Bryzgalov at 4:40 of the 1st. The PK units (more on them later) killed off a Philly power play after Dustin Jeffrey was pinged for slashing ten seconds later. Then - in what's sure to become known as 'The Neal Play' when the two hook up throughout the season - Evgeni Malkin won a face-off cleanly back to James Neal, who whipped a shot from the top of the left circle into the far corner to open up a two-goal lead after only 7:20.

Philly got back into the game in the 2nd, after Brooks Orpik got caught pinching. Scott Hartnell was forced wide down the left wing by a resurgent Martin, but delivered a dandy of a saucer pass which barely evaded Chris Kunitz's covering stick and landed squarely on the tape of Claude Giroux. The new Flyers' captain made no mistake, sliding the puck under Marc-Andre Fleury to cut the Pens' lead in half.

The rest of the way, despite Philly holding a shots lead in the final two periods, the Penguins looked pretty comfortable right up until Kunitz shoveled the puck into an empty net with 11.2 seconds left. There were a couple of heart-in-mouth moments - which undoubtedly would have seen the puck in the Pens net last April - but they survived.

5 Key Points

1. Paul Martin plays well? Is that allowed?

If you take a cursory look at the plus/minus column, Martin is on pace to finish with a -48 rating. So, back to last year's turnover-prone horror show then? Well, no. Not even slightly. Despite some people on Twitter trying to blame him for the Flyers goal, he actually defended it as well as possible. Perfectly positioned to cover Orpik's pinch on the left side, he forced Scott Hartnell out wide, allowing Kunitz to get back to at least contest the slot with Giroux. Hartnell made a fabulous play which beat not only Martin, but Kunitz and Fleury as well. No shame in that.

The veteran D-man actually produced one of his best games in a Penguins uniform. He utilized his excellent skating to command the ice more aggressively. He blocked three shots with his active stick - something which will particularly have pleased Dan Bylsma. Add to that his shot that TK redirected for the opening goal, and his interception - by standing strong in the neutral zone - of a Flyers pass to set up Kunitz's empty netter and you have arguably the team's best performer. Long may it continue!

2. Marc-Andre Fleury: Wall-Flower

Fleury was shelled for 26 goals in the playoff loss. He looked tired, and out of his zone, regressing to the overactive style that hindered him early in his career. Saturday, he looked calm, assured and made a number of crucial saves, including some sequences he simply would not have made in April.

The most pleasing thing was how easy he made most of his saves look. Fleury seemed still for most of the night. Sure, he made some trademark side-to-side stops and flung himself on a couple of loose pucks, but gone was the overcompensation; no sliding outside the post and getting beat far side.

What looked like a routine save in the 3rd summed his performance up. Dustin Jeffrey made a brain-dead cross ice pass in the defensive zone, which was picked up and shot wide by a Flyer. The puck came back off the end boards, straight to the stick of Eric Wellwood, who shot the puck hard on net. Straight into an immobile Fleury's chest. A great read and great positioning. Outstanding.

3. (Penalty) Killing the Demons

In April, the Penguins flat-out could not stop the Flyers from scoring with the man advantage. At times it looked like they could score at will.

Last night, the Flyers had five power play chances. The Penguins killed all five. The PK units looked nothing like they did back in April. Indeed, the personnel have changed considerably. Jordan Staal is in Carolina; Zbynek Michalek in Phoenix. So, Bylsma used a plethora of players - including the outstanding Brandon Sutter - to kill penalties, taking advantage of stoppages of play to keep the forward pairs fresh. In fact, Bylsma kept a good rotation of players going all game - key in a compressed season - with only Dustin Jeffrey getting less than 10 minutes of ice time.

Good penalty killing starts in net, and Fleury was perfect, stopping all 11 of Philadelphia's man advantage shots. But the units as a whole seemed to spend less time running around the ice chasing Flyers or the puck, concentrating on protecting and collapsing around the net when necessary.

Most intriguingly, both #87 and #71 saw time with the PK units. This is sure to create huge mismatches against opposing power plays in the future, particularly if Malkin continues to strip the puck from opponents apparently at will.

4. Unsung Heroes

Penguins fans are going to get to like Brandon Sutter very quickly. He looked like he had been part of the team for years last night, adding an outstanding defensive presence. He also dominated the faceoff circle, winning 57% of his draws. Faceoffs have been a problem for Pittsburgh, but with Sutter, Crosby and Evgeni Malkin's increased success in this area, this will soon be eradicated. All Pens centers (Crosby, Malkin, Sutter, Jeffrey) won over half their faceoffs.

And a special mention must go to Craig Adams. Just in case anyone didn't know, NBC's coverage team made sure it was clear he's a Harvard grad. This has nothing to do with his hockey smarts, but he certainly used his head in the 3rd period. A Flyers shot finally snuck past Fleury and was heading straight into the net. Adams, back-checking hard, arrived in the crease just in time to stop the puck crossing the line and cleared it away, preserving the 2-1 scoreline. Awesome.

5. Players Under Scrutiny

It has been noted before that some of the players in Dan Bylsma's lineup have got something to prove. Eric Tangradi is getting another chance to stick in the top-six. Simon Despres - Bylsma's favoured son it would seem - is in the lineup despite concerns over his development; Bryan Strait is now an Islander since he was sent down not Despres. And I think everyone was surprised when Jeffrey got the nod on the fourth line over Joe Vitale.

Jeffrey didn't have a great game outside of the faceoff circle - where he was excellent, winning 5 of 8 - taking an unnecessary penalty and making some errant passes, so we'll see whether Vitale gets a chance against New York tonight.

As for the other two, Despres played alright and wasn't particularly obvious, which is a good thing. Unfortunately, Tangradi was virtually anonymous, which is not. If Tangradi cannot get himself into games playing alongside the reigning MVP and a 40-goal scorer, it can only be a matter of time before Beau Bennett hears his phone ringing in Wilkes-Barre, or Ray Shero pulls the trigger on a trade for a proven scorer. That will be a shame, but Tangradi needs to find the net, and soon. 

Final Thoughts

Two points are important in any season, but in a schedule slashed to 48 games every point is at a premium. Add that every game will be played against Eastern Conference opposition, and winning in regulation, thus keeping the extra point for a regulation tie away from rivals, becomes even more valuable. That the Penguins were able to hold on to a slender lead through more 50 minutes of play speaks volumes to their improved defensive play last night.

And beating the Flyers will always feel great anyway, right?

 NF

Comments very welcome.

Hockey Is Back!

A Late, Late Show: Penguins Season Preview 

So, less than two hours to go (hence no links in here today, apologies) to the first puck dropped in anger in the 2012-13 (well, 2013 anyway) NHL season. Excitement is high, at least on this blog. The Penguins kick off a jam-packed slate of action at 3 p.m. ET in, of all places, Philadelphia, against bitter intrastate rivals the Flyers. This gives the Pens an early crack at revenge for the ignominious way the Flyers dumped them out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs all the way back in April 2012. That series gave rise to a number of questions that Dan Bylsma will want the team to answer early and often. With the game fast approaching, there's just about enough time to look at a few key areas in preview of the Pens' season.

1. Forwards

Ray Shero opted to take advantage of a high value on center Jordan Staal, a key member of the club for a number of years, trading him to Carolina in June. In return, Pittsburgh received center Brandon Sutter, prospect defenseman Brian Dumoulin and the 8th overall pick in last year's draft. With the pick, Penguins' management selected another defenseman, Derrick Pouliot, adding to a strong prospect pile at the position.

Staal's departure may have removed a very talented player from the organisation, breaking up the 'Big Three' in the process, but he was always likely to want to be the top-six player his size and ability demanded. This was never likely to be in Pittsburgh with a healthy Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin around, so when Staal turned down a 10-year $60m extension, Shero really had to move him to get a good return. The organisation are apparently very high on Sutter, who has a reputation as an excellent two-way player with outstanding defensive smarts. Staal's defensive play had started to waver a little towards the end of his time in Pittsburgh, so Sutter should provide an upgrade to the third line, where Staal was never really suited. He also had a big performance in Wednesday's intra-squad scrimmage, with a goal and two assists and a tally in the shootout as well.

Crosby looks set to be flanked by long term linemates Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis - he of the 25-goal breakout season in 2011-12 - with Malkin a lock to play with 40-goal scorer James Neal and... Well, that's the primary issue. Who sticks as the last top-six forward? 2010 first-round pick Beau Bennett has been sent back down, so it looks likely that Eric Tangradi, who arrived from Anaheim promising much, but has yet to deliver anything of note (40 games, 1 goal), will get the nod. Tangradi still apparently has a lot of upside, but he's going to have to get off to a good start to stay on the second line with Bennett only a phone call away in Wilkes-Barre.

The third line will feature Sutter and stalwarts Matt Cooke and Tyler Kennedy. This line has the potential to be one of the best in the league, with all three players able to score and play with grit. Kennedy could easily see time in the top-six, and Cooke needs to reintroduce at least a little aggression to his game, but this line should be great to watch and combined for four goals in Wednesday's scrimmage. That leaves Joe Vitale, Craig Adams, Dustin Jeffrey and newcomer Tanner Glass to fight it out for a fourth line berth. Vitale's and Adams' value on the penalty kill makes them certainties, and Glass' 246 hits for Winnipeg a year ago will add some much needed sandpaper. Jeffrey will probably be the odd-man-out, but he is a serviceable player to see time on the third or fourth line.

This is a forward group who contributed to a NHL-high 273 goals a season ago. That was without Sidney Crosby for the lion's share of the season. Sure, Shero missed out on signing Zach Parise, but adding a fully fit Sid is like signing the best free-agent on the market. Crosby and Malkin - coming off an MVP 109 point season - together and healthy is the best possible news the Penguins could have had.

2. Defense & Goalies

The single biggest reason the Penguins lost to the Flyers in April? Woeful defense. This was a team wide problem, though it is easier to point the finger at some players more than others. Marc-Andre Fleury looked beyond help in that series, but that was in no small part due to him having appeared in 67 games, itself a result of sub-par play from backup Brent Johnson. In Johnson's defense, it was his play the previous season that allowed the club to shake off a terrible first few weeks from Fleury. Hopefully, Fleury will come back stronger for the humbling experience. But if he struggles, then Shero pulled off, in my view, one of the masterstrokes of his tenure as GM this offseason, signing Tomas Vokoun to a 2-year deal, worth $2m a season. Vokoun has been one of the best goalies in the league during his career, and could easily be a number one for some teams. He has a reputation as a great locker room guy, and should be able to help mentor Fleury.

It is worth pointing out that, despite what some say, Vokoun is not in Pittsburgh to unseat MAF. He is there to take some pressure and some workload off his shoulders. A fresh, fit Fleury is still one of the game's best, though he still has untidy games and makes mental mistakes, but then, who doesn't?

Now, the goaltending was only part of the issue in the run-in and playoffs. The defense in front of the net was downright terrible at times. Kris Letang is emerging into the All-Star caliber player everyone thought he would be, and Brooks Orpik is a defensive force. Those two are the nailed down, top-quality blue liners the Pens possess. It is the others in the corps who have question marks. With Zbynek Michalek's shot-blocking gone back to Phoenix, that leaves Paul Martin, Deryk Engelland, Ben Lovejoy, Simon Despres, Matt Niskanen and Robert Bortuzzo as the six men looking for four spots. Martin had an abysmal year last time around, but because of his $5m salary, he will play until he is traded or bought out (or actually plays like he is capable of, as shown when he was a Devil). Niskanen is quietly turning into the player that makes the trade that sent Alex Goligoski to Dallas for him and James Neal look like the bargain of the century. A solid defender who plays the PK well and can chip in offensively, his play solidifies the top-four caliber players.

The other players are interesting. Engelland played last year when Bylsma wanted grit; Lovejoy when he wanted smooth skating. It appears that Engelland will play, which is great, but despite Despres getting a lot of negative press for his work ethic, fitness and production, he will likely keep Lovejoy out of the lineup. Bortuzzo played well in a limited role last season, and keeping eight defensemen active gives Bylsma and Todd Reirden some flexibility should anyone not perform. Whatever happens, they can't be worse than last April. Can they?

3. Special Teams

In 'that' series, the Penguins killed fewer than half (47.8%) of Philadelphia's power play opportunities, giving up a whopping 12 power play goals in the six games. This was coming off the back of being the top-ranked PK squad during the regular season. A lot of this was due to the Flyers exploiting the Pens' 'tight-box' strategy, with the PK unit leaving too much space on the outside for Flyers forwards to move into. It sounds as if the unit have still been playing the same formation, so this is a point of concern. However, Dan Bylsma has indicated that Crosby might see some time on the kill, which would at least back opposing blueliners off in the closing seconds of a kill, as well as creating shorthanded chances. This is a wait and see proposition.

The power play was the reason the Pens lost in the previous series, in 2011, to Tampa Bay. It went 1-for-35. Pittsburgh also got burned for three shorties by Philly last year. A lot of the defensive frailties of the unit should be shored up by having Letang on the back end, not Steve Sullivan. But there will still be four forwards on the ice, with James Neal apparently being asked to play the point. He will be roving, as I understand it, trying to get 'lost in the mix' so to speak. Kunitz will be in front of the net, and I imagine Crosby will be down low at the goal line and behind the net, where he is undoubtedly the best at what he does, with Malkin working the half-wall. This unit tallied twice in the scrimmage on Wednesday, which is very encouraging.

4. Line Combinations

Here are my predictions for the Pens' lines to open the season:

Kunitz   -   Crosby   -   Dupuis

Tangradi   -   Malkin   -   Neal

Cooke   -   Sutter   -   Kennedy

Glass   -   Vitale   -   Adams

Orpik   -   Martin

Letang   -   Despres

Niskanen   -   Engelland

Fleury

Vokoun

5. Final Thoughts

The Pens had 108 points last year, with Crosby only playing a small number of games. Yes, Jordan Staal has gone and Paul Martin hasn't. But Sutter arguably makes the team more balanced, and having the best player in the world in Sidney Crosby and perhaps the second-best in Evgeni Malkin, will make them a scary proposition for any opponent.

If Marc-Andre Fleury can play like he did for most of 2011-12, the penalty kill plays like it did for most of 2011-12 and Ray Shero's additions work out - which I have no doubt they will, I really like both Sutter and Glass and Vokoun's a no-brainer - this Pens team should (must?) compete for the Stanley Cup in 2013.

NF

Comments are very welcome, and I will have a full report on tonight's game up by Sunday at the latest.

Let's go Pens!

 

Hanrahan Trade: Mark Melancon

The most experienced player acquired by Neal Huntington in return for Joel Hanrahan and Brock Holt, right-hander Mark Melancon has appeared in 147 games across four seasons for the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox. He has some experience in closing games, notching 20 Saves with Houston in 2011, so he can reasonably be viewed as a potential replacement for Hanrahan. If he is indeed to close for the Bucs, he will need to outperform Jason Grilli (recently resigned for 2013-14 at $6.75m and discussed here.) in Spring Training. No small task given Grilli's 2012 performance. He will also need to show that some shaky performances for Boston this season were hiccups, rather than his ceiling.

Here is Melancon's output pitching for Houston in 2011: These are mostly solid, if unspectacular numbers, but with a good strikeouts-to-walks ratio and manageable WHIP. Had he built on this in 2012, Melancon may have established himself as one of Boston's top relievers. Looking at his basic 2012 numbers, it appears as if he had a total collapse in performance this season. Overall, he posted a 6.20 ERA, allowing 8 home runs in only 45.1 innings of work. At a glance, this would make his acquisition by the Pirates appear questionable. Luckily for Melancon - and the Bucs - his ERA and home run totals are particularly misleading. They are heavily skewed by four disastrous April appearances in which he retired only 6 of 18 batters he faced, gave up 5 long balls and had a slugging percentage against of 1.733. His ERA in April was... wait for it... 49.50! Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox optioned him to AAA Pawtucket to see if he could recover his stuff and confidence.

This is where his performance across the rest of 2012 becomes interesting - and makes him much more appealing as a late-inning option out of the Bucco's bullpen in 2013. Melancon terrorized AAA hitters in 21 minor league games. In 21.2 innings, he allowed only 2 earned runs, struck out 27 batters (11.2 K/9), walked only 3 (1.2 BB/9), and posted a matching WHIP and ERA of 0.83. That's pretty dominant. Question is, could he perform adequately in the Majors? The Sox recalled him in June, and he pitched well that month. Passable results followed in July and August, but he was near unhittable in September, with opponents managing only .114/.162/.143 against him. If one ignores his April - and to be fair, A.J. Burnett routinely had his May 2, 2.2 IP, 12 ER debacle against St. Louis conveniently forgotten about by most people - then Melancon had a very respectable return in 2012. To quote myself:

@dejan_kovacevic After recall in June Melancon posted 4.18 ERA in 43 IP w/1.05 WHIP. Opponents hit only .217/.273/.323, 3HR. #JustSaying
— Nick Ferrier (@LordFezzington) December 23, 2012

The more you dig, the more evidence there is to be found that Melancon could be successful out of the 'pen for the Bucs. His strikeout rate climbed month-on-month throughout the season, from 4.5 K/9 in April, through 5.9 (June), 7.3 (July), 8.3 (August) to an outstanding 11.7 K/9 in September. This may well be due to increased velocity in his fastball later in the season, though I suspect increased confidence from his time at AAA also contributed.

The increased velocity may have a downside however, as - according to piratesprospects.com - he has a 'high-effort delivery'. He missed the whole of 2007 after injuring his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery whilst with New York. It will be interesting to see if he can continue to throw as hard as he did at the end of 2012 in 2013. Again according to Pirates Prospects, his repertoire is based around a mid-90s mph four-seamer and cutter, with a 12-6 power curve as his stock out pitch. Looking at FanGraphs, he appears to mix his pitches well so as not to be over-reliant on any one, and adds in a change-up now and again.

All in all, Melancon is - by far - the most important piece that Pirates' management will be relying on to make the Hanrahan trade a success. Clearly, he has the potential to do very well, with a ceiling at least as high as Hanrahan's was when he arrived in Pittsburgh in '09. The Pirates' staff have done an admirable job in getting the best out of relief pitchers in recent seasons. I see no reason why this shouldn't continue with Mark Melancon.

NF

P.S. Just for reference, I have included Melancon's statistics in NL Central ballparks for the sake of completeness. The sample size is too small (given that Minute Maid Park will be in the AL West next year) to say very much, but these are the stadiums in which Melancon should see the most action in 2013. Enjoy!

Pirates Trade Hanrahan To Red Sox

So, it'll be Hammer Time in Boston in 2013, not Pittsburgh. Finalized on Boxing Day, the Pirates agreed to send All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan, along with 2B prospect Brock Holt, to the Red Sox in return for RHPs Mark Melancon and Stolmy Pimentel, OF/1B Jerry Sands and 2B Iván De Jesus Jr.

Inevitably, the trade has drawn the ire of some Bucs fans:

Jerry f**king Sands? That's who the Pirates get for Hanrahan. Worst franchise in baseball. Nutting is a f**king asshole
— Cody Veltre (@CVeltre15) December 23, 2012

Indeed, on the surface it appears that the Pirates have dealt away one of the premier closers in baseball, accompanied by a prospect who has already debuted in the Majors, whilst receiving four players with mostly limited major league experience. Given Hanrahan's expected 2013 salary of around $7m, cynics will be bound to see the trade as a salary dump, symptomatic of the club's financial approach under the ownership of Bob Nutting. Whether this turns out to be the case or not - regardless of the organization's intention - will be determined by the performance of the players involved in 2013 and beyond. A salary dump is only a salary dump in reality if a) the player with the big salary continues to perform at the same level and b) the players picked up fail to make a significant impression.

One can only speculate as to whether Nutting wanted Hanrahan's salary off the books at - if you'll excuse the pun - any cost, or whether GM Neal Huntington genuinely believes he got the better side of this deal. However, we can look at the players and circumstances involved to see how the trade will impact the Pirates in the coming season and the future. Hanrahan is clearly the biggest piece in the trade, so I'll start with him and look at the other 5 in separate posts. He's coming off a second straight season of 35+ saves, something only Milwaukee's John Axford and Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel have managed in the same span. Saves, like Wins for starting pitchers and RBIs for hitters, are the statistic which get people drooling over closing pitchers. The more saves you rack up, the more you're likely to be worth. In fact, relief pitching in general is becoming incredibly expensive. Witness 3-year deals signed by Brandon League ($22.5m, Dodgers), Jonathan Broxton ($21m, Reds) and Jeremy Affeldt ($18m, Giants). (As an aside, both Axford and Kimbrel will likely earn less than $600,000 in 2013, as pre-arbitration players)

Hanrahan's circa $7m for 2013 would be in line with the annual value of these contracts, so for a lot of clubs, keeping him would have been a no-brainer. However, the Pirates payroll projects to be somewhere in the region of $70m next season. That would mean Hanrahan would have been due about 10% of all the money paid to Pirates' players in 2013. That's a lot for 4% of the pitching workload (59.2 IP out of 1433.1). Whilst that's clearly an oversimplification of a closer's role and value, it does put Joel's salary in some kind of perspective. It is also worth noting that there were some clues down the stretch that he may not continue to produce at the outstanding level he has over the last two years. It was noticeable that he allowed more baserunners later in the season, and his control over the course of the year was less than stellar (5.4 BB/9), leading to a lower strikeouts-to-walks ratio (1.86, down from 3.81) despite striking out batters at a higher rate.

In terms of how Hanrahan's departure will affect the Pirates, it seems all but certain that having re-signed Jason Grilli to a 2-year, $6.75m deal in mid-December, the club expect him to take on the mantle of closer. Assuming his performance doesn't collapse, Grilli could be even more successful in this role than Hanrahan. In 2012, the 36-year old struck out an unholy 13.8 batters per 9 innings, had a lower walk rate (3.4 BB/9) and held opponents to a lower OBP (.285) than Hanrahan (.307). He also replicated the Hammer's dominance of left-handed batters, despite a much higher batting average on balls in play (.314 against .172). Clint Hurdle's other option is likely to be Melancon, who has some excellent peripheral statistics but struggled in some high-leverage situations last season. At this stage it looks like Grilli in the 9th with Melancon possibly setting-up in the 8th.

All of this is pure speculation, of course. Joel Hanrahan proved he could handle the 9th inning and ended up as one of the Pittsburgh Pirates' greatest closers, as well as one of Neal Huntington's most shrewd acquisitions. It also seems that he was an outstanding contributor to the city of Pittsburgh and its community off the field as well as being a presence in the locker room. Clearly, his departure is a loss for the city, the club and its fans, but one of the few things the Pirates' management have shown in recent years is an ability to put together a reliable bullpen. Grilli (and hopefully Melancon) should allow that to continue.

As for the Red Sox, they clearly believe Hanrahan will continue to produce at an All-Star level, having already named him their closer, making Andrew Bailey's future uncertain. Well, good luck to them, and especially to Joel Hanrahan. Hammer, you will be missed!

NF

Steelers Eliminated From Playoffs

You know that thoughtless, unwanted present that ruins Christmas for everyone? The one that prompts awkward conversation and probing questions? Well, the Pittsburgh Steelers delivered one hell of a disappointing early Christmas present to their fans yesterday, all wrapped up in ghastly black and orange tiger print paper, losing 13-10 to Cincinatti. Another lacklustre offensive performance, combined with numerous mistakes and errors in execution left the Steelers and their fans on the outside of the NFL Playoff bubble looking in for only the second time in Mike Tomlin's six-season tenure. The club must now beat Cleveland - not as certain an outcome as you might think, given the Browns' 20-14 victory in Week 12 - to avoid their first losing season under Tomlin.

Falling from 6-3 to 7-8 by losing 5 of 6 games is always going to be disappointing. It is the manner in which the Steelers have dropped the last 3 games in a row, effectively slamming the Playoff door in their own face, which is particularly difficult to understand. With victory over the Ravens in Week 13 with Charlie Batch under center, they had a 7-5 record, Ben Roethlisberger back and games against the 4-8 San Diego Chargers and (at that stage) 6-6 Dallas Cowboys (no longer 'America's Team' according to Roethlisberger, as if anyone outside of Dallas still thought they were!) up next. Sitting pretty, right?

Well, no, as it turns out. I won't dissect the embarrassing nature of the San Diego loss - others have already done that. I won't even talk about Todd Haley's play-calling against Dallas. What I will do is try and look at how the Steelers managed to lose yesterday. Because that's what happened. On the Steelers.com LIVE post-game show, Tunch Ilkin said that 'more games are lost than won in the National Football League, and if that was ever a truism, it manifested itself in the Pittsburgh Steelers.' He couldn't be more right about yesterday. Despite a gorgeous 60-yard TD toss from Ben to Antonio Brown and generally solid play from the returning Rashard Mendenhall, the offense was provided with numerous opportunities to score points and win the game, but repeatedly failed to capitalise.

The defense turned in a dominant performance overall. Andy Dalton had a sub-60 QB rating and was sacked six times; A.J. Green was held off the scoresheet; Bengals' RBs had 14 yards on 16 carries; Cincinatti converted only 25% of third downs. And Cortez Allen...well all Cortez Allen did was force three turnovers all by himself, including this spectacular play. There's only so much the defensive unit can do to keep an offense in a game, and turnovers are the best way to do so. Allen provided three chances for #7 and the offense to score. So, gladly accepting these timely seasonal gifts from the D, the offense promptly wasted them. The first two Bengals' turnovers, the Pittsburgh went three-and-out and punted. After the third turnover, they drove 13 yards...and punted. Points scored off turnovers: Zero.

The biggest waste came when, after Allen's first pick, the ball was on the Cincinatti 32, within range for Shaun Suisham. Next came the all-too-predictable one-two punch of Jonathan Dwyer up the middle on 1-10, and Jonathan Dwyer up the middle on 2-6. Bear in mind this would have given Suisham a very makeable 45-yard attempt if there was no gain on the next play. Then, inexcusably, came exactly the sort of play that has made Steelers fans curse for the last goodness knows how long. Third down, in field-goal range, looking for an opportunity to keep driving for a touchdown, pass play called. This can mean only one thing: Roethlisberger goes down under the not-inconsiderable weight of Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. Brilliant. The one totally unacceptable result, forcing a punt when starting 32 yards from the goal-line.

Now, Roethlisberger may not have been responsible for that sack - the pocket collapsed around him faster than a Pirates season after a 19-inning loss - but he was certainly at fault for letting Cincinatti have opportunities to score. Which of course they did. Bengals points off turnovers: 10. Perhaps it was the Christmas spirit, but Ben could hardly have been more generous without gift-wrapping the ball. He certainly hand-delivered it to Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson. Hall was apparently invisible standing right next to Heath Miller - the only receiver Roethlisberger even glanced at on the play - when Roethlisberger filled his stocking with a pick-six. And somehow, Ben was so into using Air Mail to deliver his gifts that he managed to badly overthrow Mike Wallace - not once, but twice - the second pass landing in the waiting arms of Nelson. Dalton then hit Green for a 21-yard gain - one of the few times the defense were caught out - allowing Josh Brown to slot over a 43-yard field goal to win it, delivering the Bengals to the post-season, and the Steelers to the naughty list.

And all of this even ignores that somewhere between Greg Warren, Drew Butler and Suisham, the special teams unit botched a 24-yard field goal when the score was 7-0 Bengals. Add on to that the fact that on 28 first down plays, Haley elected only to pass ten times. Hardly a balanced attack, especially when averaging only 3.1 yards-per-carry AND that a first down or touchdown was had when a set of downs started with a pass play on seven of those ten occasions. Todd Haley seems to be using only a couple of pages from the playbook. Perhaps Roethlisberger had a point?

In his post-game presser, Tomlin admitted that the team hadn't executed as well as he would have liked and that he knows that saying so 'sounds like a broken record'. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you keep losing due to poor execution, then isn't it up to the coaching staff to do something about it? If, as he says, the coaches take full responsibility for it, then it's time to change the record, Mike.

And on that happy note: Merry Christmas!
NF

Getting Back To It

Right, time to get this restarted. Plenty has happened in the world of Pittsburgh pro-sports since my last post in late 2010. The Penguins have looked good in the regular season, then embarrassed themselves in back-to-back first round exits in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Steelers have appeared in - and lost, sadly - the Superbowl, then got Tebowed last year in the Wild-Card round. And the Pirates...well the Pirates have tortured their beleaguered fanbase by looking as if they were finally going to end all the losing before blowing up spectacularly in the run in two years in a row to drop below .500 at season's end. Deflating.

Anyhow, crucially, none of them has won anything since I canned the blog. Thus, there must be a correlation between the two things, no?* Time to get writing again and time for Pittsburgh to return as City of Champions.

*Somewhere, someone is working on an advanced Sabermetric measure to prove this...

Wilting Flower?

Just what is going on with Marc-Andre Fleury? This is a guy who backstopped the Penguins to consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearances in 07/08 and 08/09, and delivered a championship the second time around. The poor guy has had people on his back ever since he entered the league in 03/04 - and while it's true that he has struggled for consistency, particularly with rebound control and concentration, a lot of the stick has been unfair. His regular season career numbers - 149-112 record; .906 save percentage; 2.84 GAA - are hardly terrible, yet people seem to jump on him every time he has a poor game or lets in a weak goal and want him yanked as the Pens No.1 netminder.

Personally, I've always been a strong supporter of Fleury - and he's usually bounced back when it's really mattered (the 55 saves in the Triple OT win in Game 5 in '08; that ridiculous save on Nik Lidstrom in Game 7 in '09). This season, however, he's really got me worried. Flower has started in 8 games so far this season and won only once. He's allowed 3 or more goals in every game he's completed to sport an ugly 3.55 GAA, and allowed 2 goals on 5 shots in 6:56 against Phoenix on Saturday before Dan Bylsma replaced him with 'backup' Brent Johnson, who has continued to significantly outplay Fleury.

Worse, of the 64 goaltenders who have played at least 1 game this season, Fleury is ranked 62nd with a horrific .853 save percentage (Amusingly, former Pens favourite Johan 'Moose' Hedberg is 64th). Stats can of course be very misleading, but having watched every game Fleury has played this season, it's clear something is not quite right. He's still produced the odd athletic stop, but he's appeared more awkward in net than I can ever remember, has often been poorly positioned and has rarely made stops when he's really needed too - hence his 6 losses.

What is perhaps most concerning is the apparent downward trend Fleury has been on for the last couple of seasons - statistically at least, even if not results wise. He got his first 40 win season in 06/07, and then the team as a whole were given a rude welcome to playoff hockey, playing poorly in a 5 game exit to Ottawa. Despite playing in only 35 games the following year, Fleury had a career best save percentage (.921) and GAA (2.33) in the regular season, and then proceeded to come within 2 wins of the Stanley Cup by continuing his stellar play throughout the playoffs (.933; 1.97 GAA).

When the Pens won the Cup in 08/09, Fleury was solid, but is interesting to note that his regular season numbers declined to a .912 save percentage & 2.67 GAA and his postseason play was weaker overall despite going all the way (.908 & 2.78). Last season, his save percentage regressed further to .905. His GAA improved slightly to 2.65, though this was only due to facing fewer shots - testament to the shot blocking skills of Mark Eaton & Jay McKee perhaps. His performance in the playoffs was then unspectacular - he only mustered a .891 save percentage and gave up a number of cheap goals, allowing 4 on 13 shots to be chased by the Habs in the 5-2 Game 7 loss.

And then of course we have his awful start to this season, which even featured an early déjà vu moment when he gave up a soft game winner to Montreal's Scott Gomez. Marc-Andre Fleury clearly is at his best when he is confident and calm on the ice. I'm hopeful that what appears to be a worrying downward spiral for a goalie with huge potential can be reversed and MAF can lead the Pens to future success. Sidney Crosby said at today's practice that 'unfortunately for a goalie, the goalie’s always the center of attention more than anyone, so there’s always a lot of pressure that comes with that.' And he's right, there is. But somehow, Fleury's got to find a way to deal with it better and regain some of the confidence that makes him one of the best goalies in the NHL. Coach Bylsma had this to say today: 'Does he understand confidence? Well, he understands that he doesn’t have it right now.' That's great - but how are you going to help him get it back?!